At the start of August, the famine early-warning network FEWS NET confirmed that El Niño was present, flagging flood risk across parts of Africa, Central Asia, Central America and northern South America.
The US weather agency NOAA said El Niño was strengthening, with a more than 90% chance of a very strong event through the northern hemisphere’s autumn and winter.
Climate change and conflict raise the stakes
Experts at the World Resources Institute warned this El Niño could hit harder than past ones. Fuel and fertiliser disruptions linked to the Iran conflict had already weakened food systems, and record heat was stretching water supplies.
Regions expected to face drought include the Caribbean, Central America and parts of Southeast Asia and southern Africa.
What preparing early changes
- Storage: filling tanks and reservoirs before the dry months.
- Health: protecting wells from floodwater.
- Support: help reaching families before crops fail.
How you can help
Share this story and read our June explainer on El Niño. Follow organisations preparing communities for drought and floods.
Source: FEWS NET, “Global Weather Hazards”, 30 July–5 August 2026; World Resources Institute, updated 28 August 2026.
